02265nas a2200181 4500008004100000245012500041210006900166260001200235300001300247490000700260520169300267100001601960700001701976700001401993700001302007700001902020856004402039 2015 eng d00aPotential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios0 aPotential Distribution Predicted for iRhynchophorus ferrugineusi c10/2015 ae01411110 v103 a

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

1 aGe, Xuezhen1 aHe, Shanyong1 aWang, Tao1 aYan, Wei1 aZong, Shixiang uhttps://rpwgenome.myspecies.info/node/6